The ISW said it has assessed Ukraine has "many options for severing critical Russian ground lines of communication along the northern Sea of Azov coast of which the seizure of Melitopol is only one". This would severely compromise Russia's ability to use them to send supplies to its forces. "Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are significantly degrading defending Russian forces and that the overall degradation of the Russian defensive line creates opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially operationally significant," it said in its latest update.Ī Ukrainian advance to within a few miles of Melitopol would bring critical road and rail connections within range of Kyiv's artillery systems. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said it is "premature" to make predictions about the success of Ukraine's counteroffensive, adding it is likely to continue to "occur in phases of different tempos". However, a leading US think-tank has called the officials' assessment into question, saying it "unclear" why US intelligence analysts have made the assessment. The Washington Post reported officials as saying Ukraine will also not achieve its objective of severing the Russian land bridge to Crimea. To recapture it is one of the main aims of Ukraine's counteroffensive, but yesterday US officials reportedly said they do not believe Kyiv's forces will be able to. If you are a regular reader of this blog, you may have seen the southern city of Melitopol mentioned several times.
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